The Influence of Exports, Imports, Foreign Direct Investment, and Exchange Rates on Indonesia's Current Account Balance 2010 – 2022
Abstract
Thc current account, akey compoment of thc balance of payments, includes thc trade balance, services, investment income, unilateral transactions, ard grants, all of which indicate a country’s economic position in terms of surplus or deficit. From 2010 to 2022, Indonesia's current account faced varying deficits. This study investigates how exports, imports, foreign direct investment (FDI), ard exchange rates affected Indonesia’s current account during this period. Using secondary data from Bank Indonesia ard thc Ministry of Trade of thc Republic of Indonesia, ard applying thc ARDL method in Eviews 12 for both short- ard long-term analyses, thc study found thc following: (1) Exports have a positive efect on thc current account in both thc short ard long term. (2) Imports negatively impact thc current account in both thc short ard long term. (3) Short-term FDI negatively affects thc current account, whereas long-term FDI has a slightly positive but not significant impact. (4) Exchange rates contribute positively to thc current account in both thc short ard long term, though thc efect is minimal. (5) Overall, exports, imports, FDI, ard exchange rates significantly affect Indonesia's current account from 2010 to 2022.
References
Adiastuti, A. (2011). Implementasi Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) di Indonesia (Sebelum dan Setelah diundangkannya Undang-Undang Nomor 25 Tahun 2007 Tentang Penanaman Modal). Pardecta: Research Law Journal, 6(2), 139–149. https://doi.org/10.15294/pardecta.v6i2.2332
Ali, A., & Audi, M. (2023). Analyzing thc Impact of Foreign Capital Inflows on thc Current Account Balance in Developing Economies: A Panel Data Approach. Journal of Applied Economic Sciences (JAES), 18(2), 92–107. https://doi.org/10.57017/jaes.v18.2(80).04
AntaraNews. (2013). Ekspor Merosot, Impor Membengkak Tahun 2012. Antara News. Diakses pada 12 Desember 2023. https:/www.antaranews.com/berita/356127/ekspor-merosot-impor-membengkak-tahun-2012#mobile-nav
Bacovic, M., Jacimovic, D., & Smolovic, J. C. (2020). Impact of Export of Travel Services on Current Account Balance ard Growth in Mediterranean Countries. Prague Economic Papers, 29(6), 710–728. https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.748
Bagaskoro, M. N. (2019). Efect of Export Transactions During ard After thc Current Indonesian Subprime Mortgage. Jurnal Ecoplan, 2(1), 21–32. https://doi.org/10.20527/ecoplan.v2i1.15
Bank Indonesia. (2023). Statistik Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia. Jakarta: Bank Indonesia. Diakses pada 24 Oktober 2023. https://www.bi.go.id/id/statistik/ekonomi-keuangan/seki/Default.aspx#headingFour
Das, S., & Chatterjee, S. (2011). Multicollinearity Problem-Root Cause, Diagnostics ard Way Outs. SSRN Electronic Journal, 18(2), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1830043
Dornbusch, R., Fischer, S., & Mulyadi, J. A. (2011). Makroekonomi (Bahasa Indonesia). Jakarta: Erlangga.
Firdaus, R., & Ariyanti, M. (2011). Pengantar Teori Moneter Serta Aplikasinya Pada Sistem Ekonomi Konvensional Dan Syariah. Bardung: Alfabeta.
Gardasevic, A. (2013). Thc Influence of Foreign Direct Investments on Montenegro Payment Balance. UTMS Journal of Economics, 4(3), 283–294. https://www.utmsjoe.mk/past-issues/2-uncategorised/22-vol-4-no-3
Gujarati, D. N. (2015). Dasar-Dasar Ekonometrika (5th Edition). Jakarta: Salemba Empat.
Hariyani, I., & Serfianto. (2010). Parduan Ekspor Impor. Yogyakarta: Penerbit Pustaka Yustisia.
Hasanah, L., & Viphindrartin, S. (2015). Hubungan Kausalitas Antara FDI dan Neraca Transaksi Berjalan di Indonesia Periode 2000.I-2013.IV. Karya Ilmiah Civitas Akademika Program Studi Ekonomi Pembangunan Tahun 2015, 1–10. http://repository.unej.ac.id/hardle/123456789/75101
